Estrela vs Tondela Prediction at 20-02-2026

Team Form and Performance Metrics

Estrela has shown promising form going into this match, having recorded three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five fixtures. This includes an impressive 2-1 victory over rival side Marítimo and a draw against high-flying FC Porto. With a current league standing of 7th, they are pushing for a top-half finish, relying heavily on their attacking prowess. Their key players include forward Lucas Oliveira, whose pace and clinical finishing have seen him score 8 goals this season, and midfielder Carlos Silva, whose vision and passing ability orchestrate their attacking play.

In contrast, Tondela has struggled with consistency, registering two wins and three losses in their last five matches. Their recent defeat against Arouca highlighted defensive frailties, with the team conceding 11 goals in these matches. Currently sitting in 12th place, Tondela's hopes of climbing the table hinge on their ability to tighten the defense and find form in midfield. Key players include veteran striker André Almeida, a true game-changer with his experience, and new signee midfielder Miguel Rodrigues, who is still adapting to the physicality of the league.

Statistics and Head-to-Head Records

The historical head-to-head record is relatively balanced, with Estrela winning 5, Tondela winning 4, and 3 matches ending in draws over the last 12 encounters. In their last meeting, Estrela edged Tondela 1-0 at the same venue. This match also showcases both teams' styles — Estrela tends to dominate possession and create numerous chances, averaging 15 shots per game, while Tondela has struggled to maintain possession, averaging only 42% in recent matches.

This season, Estrela has scored a total of 30 goals and conceded 22. Their home record has improved notably, having won 65% of their home games this season. Tondela, on the other hand, has only managed to score 21 goals while conceding 28, a point of concern especially in away fixtures where they have not recorded a win in the last five outings.

Contextual Factors

The match will take place under favorable weather conditions, with mild temperatures expected, making for an optimal playing surface. However, the psychological edge could lie with Estrela, who has the home crowd behind them, providing a crucial lift. Tondela may face significant pressure, especially with the prospect of a relegation battle looming if they don't start securing points. Both teams will miss key players due to injury; Estrela will be without their central defender, which could open avenues for Tondela to exploit, while Tondela will also be without their top goalscorer, which dramatically affects their attacking dynamics.

Prediction

Predicting the outcome of this match leans heavily in favor of Estrela, primarily due to their home advantage and superior recent form. Given the current trajectory of both teams, expect Estrela to control the flow of the match, leading to a scoreline of Estrela 2 - 1 Tondela. This prediction takes into account Estrela's solid home record and Tondela's struggles away from home. For betting enthusiasts, the odds on Estrela to win are quite favorable, roughly estimated at 1.75, while a draw sits at around 3.50 — a tempting option considering Tondela's potential defensive resilience. However, Estrela's attacking threats should ultimately prevail.