União de Leiria vs Penafiel Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — 18-04-2026

Match Analysis

Heading into this fixture, our statistical model projects a final score of União de Leiria 1-0 Penafiel based on recent results, expected goals data and head-to-head history. The win-probability split breaks down as 41% for União de Leiria, 35% for the draw and 24% for Penafiel, making União de Leiria the clear favourite to take all three points in this encounter. União de Leiria have collected 1 win(s), 2 draw(s) and 2 loss(es) in their last 5 fixtures, scoring 5 and conceding 6 goal(s) overall. Penafiel have collected 2 win(s), 1 draw(s) and 2 loss(es) in their last 5 fixtures, scoring 7 and conceding 7 goal(s) overall. These numbers should be read alongside any team news, weather conditions and motivation factors that might influence the outcome on the day.

União de Leiria — Recent Form

• União de Leiria away to Benfica II — drew the match 2-2 (result: D).
• União de Leiria at home against Lusitania — drew the match 0-0 (result: D).
• União de Leiria at home against Pacos Ferreira — won the match 2-0 (result: W).
• União de Leiria away to Chaves — lost the match 0-2 (result: L).
• União de Leiria at home against Maritimo — lost the match 1-2 (result: L).

Penafiel — Recent Form

• Penafiel at home against Academico Viseu — won the match 4-3 (result: W).
• Penafiel away to Sporting Lisbon II — lost the match 1-2 (result: L).
• Penafiel at home against Vizela — lost the match 0-1 (result: L).
• Penafiel away to Feirense — won the match 1-0 (result: W).
• Penafiel at home against Farense — drew the match 1-1 (result: D).

Prediction

Predicted score: União de Leiria 1-0 Penafiel.

Win probabilities: Home 41% / Draw 35% / Away 24%.

Small Stake on Home Win 1-0